31%

A couple of polls out this week show Fearless Leader now hovering just below the freezing mark, with a scant 31% approving of his job performance. While I can't deny that his long, slow slide in public opinion is pleasing to me, I'm also somewhat surprised by it. I didn't think his popularity could sink so low--I thought there was a solid 35% or so that had become so psychologically identified with him that they could never abandon him no matter what--nor did I think that if it did sink so low, it would remain so for a sustained period of time. Yet here we are.

The reasons for the disapproval are pretty obvious--Iraq drags on and on and on, gas prices are sky high (in fairness there isn't much in the short term that Bush could do about this, but having a Texas oil man running the country while gas prices reach unheard-of heights and oil corps. rake in record profits just plain doesn't look good), and it's hard to think of more than a handful of Republicans who haven't been investigated or appeared in a mugshot recently. Add the complex issue of immigration into the mix--one of the few issues where the Conservative base actually seems pretty far to the right of Bush, who used to think the growing Hispanic vote could be turned solidly Republican--and you have approval ratings on par with those "enjoyed" by Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon at the lowest points of their terms in office.

Here's my prediction for the months leading up to November's elections: In addition to harping on whatever Culture War crisis-of-the-moment is brought to the fore (funny how that always happens around election time), many of the people who crowed and cackled the loudest just a few short months ago about Bush's razor-thin electoral victories and supposed mandate will suddenly discover that Bush isn't "really" a conservative and never was; in fact, there's some evidence that this is already happening. Though some diehards will probably always stick by him, I think you'll begin to hear this meme picked up more and more from candidates, low-level talking heads and echo-chamber types as Bush's lame duck status becomes more tangible. A few of them will even start to talk openly about how he "betrayed" conservatives with huge deficits and disastrous attempts at empire-building. In the end, this is really the only thing that conservatives can do. After all, who wants to be tied to such an albatross?

What kills me about the shift in rhetoric I'm predicting is that if it is adopted, it won't really be incorrect. This President HAS failed to reduce the size of government or veto a single spending measure, he HAS giddily partaken in "nation building", he HAS sacrificed individual liberties in order to pander to the most fervent and xenophobic elements of his base, all things Conservatives would, in theory, be against. I'll be happy to see the Right come to this realization (which I've been pointing out for years, btw), but that doesn't mean anybody gets a free pass. He's their man and no matter how hard they try they can't be allowed to run from him. Conservatives were happy to hitch their wagons to this man as he rose to power and brought them what they perceived to be victories, and I for one am not prepared to let them get away with "ahh, I just realized that I never really liked him that much" now that he's sinking like a stone.