Back To Snark Just For A Little While
Part Two of the Baja pictures is coming, but please allow me to return to the Snark Side just for a moment. Then more happy posts and pictures, I swear.
I note today that a new AP-Ipsos poll out today shows that President Bush's popularity continues to wallow in the basement. A scant 37 percent approves of the job he is doing (both Clinton and Reagan had approval ratings in the 60's at this point in their Presidencies). The vast majority of Americans believe Iraq, the quagmire on which Bush has staked his legacy, is headed for civil war. Republican politicians who face reelection this year are struggling to distance themselves from the unpopular CIC. Nearly Seventy percent of the population thinks the country is on the "wrong track." And the Republican-controlled Congress is just as unpopular.
So does this mean we're headed for a repeat of 1994, when Newt Gingrich and company stormed in to take control of Congress and end 40 years of Democratic majority there? Will disgust with GOP scandals (illegal wire-tapping, Abramoff, DeLay, Randy "Duke" Cunningham, etc., etc.), incompetence (most notably the heck of a job done on Katrina) and bungled foreign policy (the afore-mentioned Iraq, now almost three years past "Mission Accomplished") lead us to a Democratic Revolution this fall to mirror the Republican Revolution of twelve years ago? Unfortunately I think not, and for several reasons.
First, it isn't enough for national Democratic leaders to stand around and say "don't those Republicans suck?" Yes they do, but that's not enough of an issue to win on. As I've said for years, the Democratic Party needs to stand for something, and that means something more than just vague, mushy-sounding slogans like "A more secure America". But so far national Democratic leaders can only muster a unified voice on a couple of issues, most notably the fact that they would really like to be returned to power. That's not very inspirational.
Second, November might as well be a thousand years away in terms of collective political memory. By that time phrases like "Dubai Ports Deal" will probably mean next to nothing to the average Joe. True, fresh blunders will probably have arisen to take the place of today's blunders, but it's just not likely that approval ratings will remain at such low levels for such an extended period of time.
Third, I think that when you get down to it people will always vote their gut. At a certain level, all politics is identity politics. I know I'm cynical in this regard, but I think most people in America (and perhaps around the world, although I haven't traveled enough to know) identify themselves with a "side" and stick to that side the way a sports' fan sticks to the home team. "I love America and I love Jesus, therefore I vote Republican." This gut-level affiliation exists completely independent of objective facts. People who might otherwise tell you they believe in small government will plug their fingers in their ears, close their eyes and sing The Star Spangled Banner when you try to tell them that George Bush has actually expanded the size of the government, run up a record $427 billion dollar deficit and has never vetoed a single spending measure. The same right-wingers who blasted Bill Clinton for "Nation Building" in Bosnia or Somalia cling like barnacles to the ridiculous notion that the only reason we ever invaded Iraq was to selflessly "spread freedom and democracy." It seems to me that much of the time, the question of whether it's Nation Building or Freedom On The March depends on whether or not it's your guy doing it. Even if people are frustrated with the current leadership, that doesn't mean they're actually going to go against their gut.
But ultimately, the biggest reason I think the Democrats will not give us a full-blow Revolution this year is simply the fact that the Rove strategy works (really it's the Atwater strategy, but who cares to remember that far back). God, Guns and Gays will, in the end, be enough to win the day, or at least prevent a major loss. After all, try to engage people in a discussion as to why the American worker's real wages haven't gone up in years and you'll put people to sleep. But mention gay marriage? Well that's easy to have a loud opinion on. Why should Republicans abandon fear-mongering and divisiveness? It's worked for them for at least a couple decades now. The closer we get to November, the more Swift Boaters and meaningless Gay Marriage Amendments will come out of the woodwork in Congressional races across the country.
So in the end, this Fall the Democrats will pick up a few seats here and there but I'm not expecting a full-fledged Revolution. A cohesive national message based on more than the anti-"Culture of Corruption" theme might yet change this fate, but I don't see it happening.
Okay, done with the serious junk for now. Back to the sunny pictures very soon, I promise.
I note today that a new AP-Ipsos poll out today shows that President Bush's popularity continues to wallow in the basement. A scant 37 percent approves of the job he is doing (both Clinton and Reagan had approval ratings in the 60's at this point in their Presidencies). The vast majority of Americans believe Iraq, the quagmire on which Bush has staked his legacy, is headed for civil war. Republican politicians who face reelection this year are struggling to distance themselves from the unpopular CIC. Nearly Seventy percent of the population thinks the country is on the "wrong track." And the Republican-controlled Congress is just as unpopular.
So does this mean we're headed for a repeat of 1994, when Newt Gingrich and company stormed in to take control of Congress and end 40 years of Democratic majority there? Will disgust with GOP scandals (illegal wire-tapping, Abramoff, DeLay, Randy "Duke" Cunningham, etc., etc.), incompetence (most notably the heck of a job done on Katrina) and bungled foreign policy (the afore-mentioned Iraq, now almost three years past "Mission Accomplished") lead us to a Democratic Revolution this fall to mirror the Republican Revolution of twelve years ago? Unfortunately I think not, and for several reasons.
First, it isn't enough for national Democratic leaders to stand around and say "don't those Republicans suck?" Yes they do, but that's not enough of an issue to win on. As I've said for years, the Democratic Party needs to stand for something, and that means something more than just vague, mushy-sounding slogans like "A more secure America". But so far national Democratic leaders can only muster a unified voice on a couple of issues, most notably the fact that they would really like to be returned to power. That's not very inspirational.
Second, November might as well be a thousand years away in terms of collective political memory. By that time phrases like "Dubai Ports Deal" will probably mean next to nothing to the average Joe. True, fresh blunders will probably have arisen to take the place of today's blunders, but it's just not likely that approval ratings will remain at such low levels for such an extended period of time.
Third, I think that when you get down to it people will always vote their gut. At a certain level, all politics is identity politics. I know I'm cynical in this regard, but I think most people in America (and perhaps around the world, although I haven't traveled enough to know) identify themselves with a "side" and stick to that side the way a sports' fan sticks to the home team. "I love America and I love Jesus, therefore I vote Republican." This gut-level affiliation exists completely independent of objective facts. People who might otherwise tell you they believe in small government will plug their fingers in their ears, close their eyes and sing The Star Spangled Banner when you try to tell them that George Bush has actually expanded the size of the government, run up a record $427 billion dollar deficit and has never vetoed a single spending measure. The same right-wingers who blasted Bill Clinton for "Nation Building" in Bosnia or Somalia cling like barnacles to the ridiculous notion that the only reason we ever invaded Iraq was to selflessly "spread freedom and democracy." It seems to me that much of the time, the question of whether it's Nation Building or Freedom On The March depends on whether or not it's your guy doing it. Even if people are frustrated with the current leadership, that doesn't mean they're actually going to go against their gut.
But ultimately, the biggest reason I think the Democrats will not give us a full-blow Revolution this year is simply the fact that the Rove strategy works (really it's the Atwater strategy, but who cares to remember that far back). God, Guns and Gays will, in the end, be enough to win the day, or at least prevent a major loss. After all, try to engage people in a discussion as to why the American worker's real wages haven't gone up in years and you'll put people to sleep. But mention gay marriage? Well that's easy to have a loud opinion on. Why should Republicans abandon fear-mongering and divisiveness? It's worked for them for at least a couple decades now. The closer we get to November, the more Swift Boaters and meaningless Gay Marriage Amendments will come out of the woodwork in Congressional races across the country.
So in the end, this Fall the Democrats will pick up a few seats here and there but I'm not expecting a full-fledged Revolution. A cohesive national message based on more than the anti-"Culture of Corruption" theme might yet change this fate, but I don't see it happening.
Okay, done with the serious junk for now. Back to the sunny pictures very soon, I promise.
posted by Yukon Sully | 9:49 AM
2 Comments:
Yukon, The democratic party is clearly not inspiring you. Why not find something that does?
If the government is too bloated and neither major party is going to change that. Maybe you should consider joining the Libertarian party, or any other party besides the one with the donkey or the one with the elephant.
Yeah, I've thought about that. I'm too much a believer in public education, environmental regulation, universal health care, etc. to ever be a Libertarian, although I do admire their independent streak. But you're right, we need more than two viable options.
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